This market is “out of gas” until fundementals improve…
On Friday, the unemployment report “appeared” better than expected when initially reported. However, further analysis revealed a number of questionable or misleading variables that indeed skewed the results. At present, the “unemployment rate” is just over 10%. However, “real” unemployment is closer to 18% -20% when we consider 1) “under” employed workers 2) workers that have “given up” and fallen off the unemployment rolls and 3) small business owners who may never show up on the unemployment radar. Beware – listening to the “simplistic” analysis often espoused on the “unemployment numbers” is, in our opinion, very misleading and erroneous. Maybe someone should explain basic statistical analysis to these “economists” and prognosticators. Yes, the number and rate of unemployed workers is slowing – it must!! To assume that the rate and number would not decline would be to assume we are regressing to 100% unemployment. At the pace of job losses realized over the past year, every American would be out of work and unemployed with 5- 6 years!! Of course the rate of job loss is slowing! No country has or has EVER had 100% unemployment! The “unemployment rate” will regress to a means, or average rate, over time for any economy (even for a very weak country with terrible economic conditions). EVERY society has a baseline, or mean, level of employment (just for survival). It’s not about the rate slowing (that should be obvious to the average 5th grade student), it’s about job GROWTH and CREATION. A “slowing” unemployment rate increase and “slowing” job losses will do absolutely NOTHING for helping this economy regain growth and prosperity. Perhaps “job creation” would be a more suitable goal for attaining economic growth and prosperity, not simple a slight “reduction” in job losses month over month. All the “spin” in the world can not changes facts and basic truths.
